Okay so yesterday was wild because I was watching these old NASCAR clips and started wondering: can Kyle Larson actually grab the pole next race? Like for real? Dude’s been fast but qualifying feels like rolling dice sometimes. So I decided to figure this out myself with stuff I could scrape together. Here’s exactly what I did step-by-step.
Started With What I Already Knew
First thing, I opened my messy notebook where I scribble race stats during broadcasts. Flipped through pages looking for Kyle’s qualifying spots this season. Found three wins, four top-five starts… but also that disaster at Martinsville where he qualified 15th. Didn’t even finish writing that one down honestly.
Then I hopped onto my laptop and checked the official season stats. Wanted recent patterns, you know? Turns out his average start position over the last ten races is 7.2. Solid! But then I remembered how chaotic last week’s session was with all those tire issues – threw everything sideways. Made me question if averages even matter anymore.
Got Stuck Hunting Recent Data
Spent like an hour digging through racing forums trying to find practice speeds for this weekend’s track. Gave up when I saw people arguing about tire compounds instead of posting numbers. Finally caved and messaged my buddy Rick who works pit crew for a Truck Series team. He texts back: “Bro NASCAR hid the test data again just mess with us.” Typical. Felt like hitting a wall.
Pivoted to lap times from similar tracks this year instead. Made a trash spreadsheet comparing Kyle vs Hamlin vs Bell on 1.5-milers. Three columns, super basic stuff:
- Larson: Best lap 28.14 seconds (Fontana)
- Hamlin: 28.27 (Las Vegas)
- Bell: 28.19 (Kansas)
The Prediction Lightbulb Moment
Here’s where gut feeling kicked in. That Darlington crash replay popped into my head – Kyle’s car bounced off the wall and kept going. And last qualifier? He threaded through traffic like it was nothing. Stamped my notebook: “Short-run monster when track grip’s high.”
Checked this weekend’s weather. Forecast says sunny and cool – perfect for sticky laps. All those tiny factors clicked: track type suits him, no major rule changes lately, Hendrick engines still sound mean as hell. Unless someone like Byron sneaks a flyer lap in, this feels like Kyle’s turn at pole. My final call? 70% chance he bags it. Set phone alerts for qualifying day already!
Honestly thought it’d take five minutes but here I am two coffee cups deep with notebook scribbles everywhere. Worth it though. Even if he starts tenth I’m standing by this process!
