So yesterday I wanted to figure out where the real election nerds get their numbers. You know, not just random Twitter graphs but the stuff actual analysts use. Started googling like crazy but man, the internet’s full of garbage polls.
My Hunt Begins
First I tried checking big news sites. CNN, Fox, MSNBC – they all showed polls but never said where they came from. Felt like chasing ghosts. Got annoyed and made coffee.
Breaking Through
Remembered that Nate Silver guy from FiveThirtyEight. Dug into their methodology section. Bingo! They actually name their sources like:
- AP VoteCast (weird name but legit)
- Marist Poll (those college folks know stuff)
- Siena College/NYT (surprisingly good)
Reality Check
Tried looking at three poll aggregators side-by-side:
- FiveThirtyEight
- RealClearPolitics
- 270toWin
And guess what? Same polls but totally different percentages! Realized they weight data differently. Some count recent polls heavier, others filter by “quality”. Total mess.
Goldmine Moment
Stumbled upon this old political science forum thread. Lurked and found experts whispering about NEP exit polls and Catalist voter files. Never heard of ’em but apparently that’s the real insider stuff. Couldn’t access most though – either paywalled or “media partners only”.
What I Finally Use
After all that headache, here’s what stays open daily:
- FiveThirtyEight averages (with grain of salt)
- Marist’s swing state breakdowns
- AP’s tables (least flashy but cleanest)
And I still refresh all three every Tuesday like a gambling addict checking scores. Old habits die hard.
