Okay, so today I wanted to mess around with probability a bit. I had this idea: what are the actual chances of something happening if it has a 30% chance of occurring, and you try it three times? It’s not as simple as just multiplying, or is it? Let’s find out!
The Setup
I grabbed a random number generator online. Nothing fancy, just a simple one where you put in a minimum and maximum number. I set the minimum to 1 and the maximum to 10. My thinking was, if I get a 1, 2, or 3, that’s my “success” (representing the 30% chance). Anything else, 4 through 10, would be a “failure”.
The Experiment (aka Me Clicking a Button a Lot)
I decided to run this little experiment in sets. For each set, I’d generate three random numbers and see if I got at least one “success” (a 1, 2, or 3). Here’s how a few of the sets went, keeping it simple:
- Set 1: 7, 9, 4 – Nope, all failures.
- Set 2: 2, 6, 10 – YES! Got a 2 right away.
- Set 3: 5, 8, 1 – YES! Got a 1 at the end.
- Set 4: 3, 5, 6: Yes!Got a 3.
- Set 5: 7, 4, 8: NO!Got all of them are failures.
I did this for… well, a while. Let’s just say I clicked that “generate” button a LOT. I kept a tally of how many sets had at least one success and how many were complete busts.
The Results (Drumroll Please…)
After many, many sets (I stopped counting exactly, to be honest, felt like hundreds!), it looked like I was getting a “success” in a set somewhere around 65% of the time. I think i got the percetage number is 65.7%.Give or take, you know? It definitely wasn’t 90% (which is what you’d get if you just multiplied 30% by 3). Intuitively, that makes sense. It should be easier to get at least one success when you try multiple times, but it’s not guaranteed.
What I Learned (Probably)
This was a fun little reminder that probability can be a bit counterintuitive. It’s not a simple linear thing. There’s probably some fancy math formula to calculate the exact probability, but I just wanted to see it in action. It’s also a good reminder that even with multiple tries, something with a low probability is still, well, low probability! You’re increasing your chances, but not by as much as you might initially think.
I think i may do it again in future, with more percetage and more times, like, 10 percetn chance times 15? Sounds fun!
