Alright, let’s talk about how I tackled figuring out those French Open odds. It wasn’t exactly Wimbledon, more like a doubles match against confusing data, but hey, I managed to pull it off.
First off, I started by just gathering all the info I could find. I mean EVERYTHING. Different betting sites, sports news outlets, even some random tennis blogs. I copied and pasted odds data into a massive spreadsheet – seriously, it looked like a digital Jackson Pollock painting.
Then came the fun part – cleaning that mess up. Some sites used decimals, others fractions, some were just plain WRONG. I had to convert everything to a single format (I went with decimals because they make my brain hurt less). That took a WHILE. I basically went line by line, fixing errors and making sure everything was apples-to-apples. Data cleaning is seriously 90% of the battle, people.
Next up, I needed to actually analyze the odds. I wasn’t trying to build some crazy AI model or anything, just wanted to see who the favorites were, who were the potential upsets, and if there were any glaring discrepancies between different bookmakers. I calculated the implied probability for each player based on the odds. This is key! It tells you what the betting site thinks their chance of winning is.
After that, I started looking for value. Were any players significantly undervalued compared to their historical performance or recent form? This is where the real betting edge can be found. I checked head-to-head records, recent tournament results, even things like court surface preference and injury reports. I used a couple of websites that track player stats, cross-referencing that data with the odds I collected.
Then I built a simple little scoring system. I gave each player points based on their implied probability, recent form, head-to-head record, and a few other factors. It wasn’t perfect, but it helped me quickly identify potential value bets.
Finally, I looked at the “overround,” also known as the “vig” or “juice.” This is the bookmaker’s profit margin built into the odds. Basically, the total implied probability of all players will always be over 100%. The higher the overround, the less value there is for the bettor. I tried to stick to bets where the overround was relatively low.
Did I win big? Not really. But I had a much better understanding of the odds and made some informed bets. More importantly, I learned a ton about data analysis and the world of sports betting. It was a fun little project, even if my spreadsheet gave me nightmares for a week!
