So this morning I woke up wondering about the current Trump versus Biden poll numbers. I mean, you hear snippets everywhere, right? Twitter rants, news headlines yelling about who’s up or down – but I wanted to see the actual data myself. So I decided to track it down and slap it into a simple chart. Let me tell you how it went down.
Starting Simple: Just Google It (Fail)
First thing I did? Opened a browser tab like everyone else and just typed “Trump vs Biden polls today”. Man, that was a mess. Tons of news articles popped up, each one flashing different headlines depending on who they favor. One site screamed “Biden SURGES Ahead!” while another whispered “Trump Gains Ground in Key States”. Headlines, opinions, noise… but precious few actual, aggregated poll numbers I could easily compare. Felt like I was getting spun, not informed.
I needed hard numbers, not hot takes.
Digging Deeper: Real Poll Aggregators
Okay, step two. I recalled hearing about places that actually collect all these polls and crunch the numbers together – aggregators. Here’s where I went hunting:
- FiveThirtyEight: They have that fancy model, but honestly, navigating their site feels like a math test sometimes. Tons of data points, lots of filtering options.
- RealClearPolitics: Found this quicker. Nice and clear average of major polls on one page, big old numbers for Biden and Trump side-by-side. Finally!
- 270toWin: Grabbed this one too because they show the Electoral College map projections based on polls – gives a different perspective.
Success! I had my main sources.
The Manual Grind (Excel Time)
Now, I just wanted to see how the national average shifted over say, the last week. Both FiveThirtyEight and RealClear show nice trend lines, but I’m stubborn. I wanted my own snapshot.
So… I manually copied the national polling averages for both guys from those sites over the last 6 days. Pasted them straight into an Excel spreadsheet. Sounds easy? It was boring and clumsy. Dates here, numbers there, double-checking I had the right candidate against the right date… pure data entry drudgery.
Making Sense of the Mess
Finally got my little dataset. Time for a chart! I highlighted my Biden numbers and Trump numbers, clicked the ‘Insert’ tab, and chose a basic line graph. Bam. Instant visual.
What did it show? Well, without getting into specific numbers (they change daily!), the lines were super close. Like, trading places within the margin of error kinda close. Biden slightly up on Tuesday, Trump nose ahead on Wednesday… barely any daylight between them nationally. This whole “who’s winning” thing? It looked messy and tight as heck, folks.
Seeing those little lines dance practically on top of each other drove the point home way more than any single headline could.
The Big Takeaway?
So, who’s leading the polls today? Based on the aggregate stuff I looked at right now? It’s a razor-thin edge, and it depends wildly on which exact poll or average you’re looking at. Seriously. What really stuck with me was how utterly close this whole race looks when you actually plot the averages yourself. All those cable news declarations feel kinda pointless when you see how noisy and neck-and-neck the underlying numbers truly are.
My little DIY graph won’t win any awards, but it gave me a clearer, calmer picture than the whole internet shouting match. Next time, maybe I’ll try to automate grabbing the numbers… but for today, the manual struggle was kinda worth it.
