Alright, so today I’m gonna walk you through how I finally wrapped my head around boxing odds. It was a bit of a journey, trust me!
First off, I started by just staring blankly at these numbers. Like, +200? -150? What in the world does that even MEAN? I knew it had SOMETHING to do with betting, but the details were blurry.
So, I did what anyone would do, I Googled it! I started with the basics, figuring out the difference between the favorite and the underdog. Basically, the fighter with the minus sign (-) next to their name is the favorite. The number next to the minus sign shows how much you need to bet to win $100. So, if a fighter is -150, you need to bet $150 to win $100.
The underdog has a plus sign (+) next to their name. The number next to the plus sign indicates how much you’ll win if you bet $100. So, if a fighter is +200, you’ll win $200 if you bet $100.
Okay, cool. I understood that part. But then I wanted to know how to actually CALCULATE my potential winnings for any bet amount, not just $100. That’s where things got a little trickier.
I ended up using a bunch of online betting calculators at first. I’d plug in the odds and my bet amount, and it would spit out my potential payout. This was helpful for quickly figuring things out, but I didn’t really UNDERSTAND what was happening behind the scenes.
So, I started looking for formulas. And that’s where I found the key! There are different formulas depending on whether you’re dealing with a favorite or an underdog.
For the favorite (minus sign): Winnings = (Bet Amount) / (Odds / 100)
For the underdog (plus sign): Winnings = (Bet Amount) (Odds / 100)
I started plugging in some numbers to test these formulas, and BAM! It worked! I was able to accurately calculate my potential winnings for any odds and any bet amount. I even built a little spreadsheet to make it even easier.
But, I didn’t stop there. I wanted to understand implied probability. What percentage chance was the betting market giving each fighter to win?
For the favorite: Implied Probability = (Odds / (Odds + 100)) 100
For the underdog: Implied Probability = (100 / (Odds + 100)) 100
I did some test calculations. Let’s say a fighter is -200. That’s (200 / (200+100)) 100 = 66.67% implied probability.
And a fighter at +150 odds? That’s (100 / (150+100)) 100 = 40%
I did this for a few fights and now it makes way more sense!
It took a bit of trial and error, but I finally feel like I have a solid grasp of boxing odds. Now, when I see those numbers, I don’t just see random figures. I see potential winnings, implied probabilities, and a much clearer picture of what the betting market is saying about a fight.
Now I can finally talk some smack with my buddies!
